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Probly displays prediction market data for informational purposes only. This is not financial or betting advice.

18+ · Prediction markets involve financial risk · Affiliate links may earn commission · Not financial advice · Cookie settings

Belgium/Senegal44.9%+0.4$3.3M·
United States/Bosnia & Herzegovina70.2%0$0·
Switzerland/Algeria47.8%0$301k·
United States/Bosnia and Herzegovina70.2%0$1.7M·
Portugal/Croatia53.6%+0.8$909k·
Switzerland/Algeria48.8%0$0·
Canada/Morocco19%-0.4$868k·
Paraguay/France5.1%-0.5$216k·
Brazil/Norway51.5%-0.2$120k·
Argentina/Cabo Verde83.5%+0.2$1.5M·
Colombia/Ghana63.4%0$0·
England/DR Congo20.5%-1$16.8M·
Spain/Austria72.7%+1.2$546k·
Australia/Egypt27.8%+0.5$143k·
Colombia/Ghana64.2%0$244k·
Mexico/Ecuador99.8%0$27.8M·
Mexico/Ecuador97.9%0$0·
France/Sweden76.1%0$352k·
South Africa/Canada16.4%0$1.4M·
Brazil/Japan57.8%0$1.3M·
Netherlands/Morocco45.3%0$417k·
Germany/Paraguay70.5%0$168k·
Côte d'Ivoire/Norway24.5%0$327k·
Jordan/Argentina0.6%-0.4$51.7M·
Algeria/Austria0.6%-0.4$80.9M·
DR Congo/Uzbekistan99.8%0$14.3M·
Colombia/Portugal0.1%0$28.5M·
Croatia/Ghana99.8%0$25.1M·
Panama/England0.1%0$11.7M·
Congo DR/Uzbekistan58.4%-0.6$1.3M·
Egypt/IR Iran0.1%0$17.6M·
New Zealand/Belgium0.1%0$7.2M·
Cabo Verde/Saudi Arabia0.1%0$14.4M·
Uruguay/Spain0.1%0$28.4M·
Senegal/Iraq99.8%0$5.9M·
Norway/France0.1%0$28.7M·
Türkiye/United States99.8%0$47.1M·
Paraguay/Australia0.1%0$12.4M·
Tunisia/Netherlands0.1%0$10.1M·
Japan/Sweden0.6%-0.4$106.2M·
Ecuador/Germany99.8%0$39.9M·
Curaçao/Côte d'Ivoire0.6%-0.4$25.8M·
South Africa/Korea Republic99.8%0$24.5M·
Czechia/Mexico0.1%0$17.2M·
Scotland/Brazil0.1%0$11.8M·
Morocco/Haiti99.8%0$27.3M·
Bosnia-Herzegovina/Qatar99.8%0$10.3M·
Switzerland/Canada99.8%0$15.3M·
Colombia/DR Congo99.8%0$15.7M·
Panama/Croatia0.1%0$17.6M·
England/Ghana0.1%0$24.7M·
Portugal/Uzbekistan99.8%0$17.7M·
Jordan/Algeria0.1%0$22.4M·
Norway/Senegal99.8%0$37.6M·
France/Iraq99.8%0$16.2M·
Argentina/Austria99.8%0$31.8M·
New Zealand/Egypt0.1%0$25.5M·
Uruguay/Cabo Verde0.1%0$23.2M·
Belgium/IR Iran0.1%0$27.0M·
Spain/Saudi Arabia99.8%0$14.4M·
Tunisia/Japan0.1%0$22.0M·
Ecuador/Curaçao0.1%0$18.1M·
Germany/Côte d'Ivoire99.8%0$42.0M·
Germany/Ivory Coast67.3%-0.7$32.1M·
Ecuador/Curacao84.3%-1.7$7.6M·
Colombia/Congo DR64.1%-1.9$139k·
Bosnia and Herzegovina/Qatar66.7%-1.3$80k·
Curacao/Ivory Coast4.9%-0.1$171k·
Turkiye/USA29.4%-0.6$2.7M·
Uruguay/Cape Verde66.3%-0.7$589k·
Cape Verde/Saudi Arabia34%-1$86k·
Netherlands/Sweden98.8%-1.2$57.6M·
Türkiye/Paraguay0.1%0$32.6M·
Brazil/Haiti98%-2$60.7M·
Scotland/Morocco0.1%0$21.5M·
United States/Australia98.8%-1.2$78.1M·
Mexico/Korea Republic98.8%-1.2$119.8M·
Canada/Qatar99.8%0$20.4M·
Switzerland/Bosnia-Herzegovina99.8%0$11.7M·
Switzerland/Bosnia and Herzegovina61.2%-1.8$5.3M·
USA/Australia60.8%-1.2$1.9M·
Turkiye/Paraguay47.5%-1.5$278k·
Czechia/South Africa0.1%0$33.3M·
Uzbekistan/Colombia0.1%0$22.9M·
Ghana/Panama99.8%0$20.1M·
England/Croatia99.8%0$26.3M·
Portugal/DR Congo0.1%0$23.6M·
Austria/Jordan99.8%0$12.1M·
Argentina/Algeria99.8%0$24.3M·
Iraq/Norway0.1%0$14.5M·
France/Senegal99.8%0$28.5M·
IR Iran/New Zealand7.6%0$31.6M·
Saudi Arabia/Uruguay0.1%0$25.8M·
Belgium/Egypt0.1%0$34.9M·
Spain/Cabo Verde0.1%0$32.4M·
Sweden/Tunisia99.8%0$21.8M·
Côte d'Ivoire/Ecuador99.8%0$16.0M·
Netherlands/Japan0.1%0$28.4M·
Germany/Curaçao99.8%0$25.5M·
Australia/Türkiye99.8%0$22.0M·
Haiti/Scotland0.1%0$24.4M·
Brazil/Morocco0.1%0$26.0M·
Qatar/Switzerland0.1%0$15.5M·
Germany/Curacao92.2%-1.8$1.8M·
Ivory Coast/Ecuador27.2%-0.8$495k·
Australia/Turkiye18.4%-0.6$2.0M·
Spain/Cape Verde89.2%-1.8$455k·
Portugal/Congo DR76.3%-0.7$181k·
United States/Paraguay99.8%0$39.1M·
Canada/Bosnia-Herzegovina0.1%0$18.7M·
Korea Republic/Czechia99.8%0$15.4M·
Mexico/South Africa99.8%0$15.0M·
Cape Verde/Saudi Arabia37.8%0$0·
Colombia/DR Congo62.9%0$0·
Belgium/Senegal44.9%+0.4$3.3M·
United States/Bosnia & Herzegovina70.2%0$0·
Switzerland/Algeria47.8%0$301k·
United States/Bosnia and Herzegovina70.2%0$1.7M·
Portugal/Croatia53.6%+0.8$909k·
Switzerland/Algeria48.8%0$0·
Canada/Morocco19%-0.4$868k·
Paraguay/France5.1%-0.5$216k·
Brazil/Norway51.5%-0.2$120k·
Argentina/Cabo Verde83.5%+0.2$1.5M·
Colombia/Ghana63.4%0$0·
England/DR Congo20.5%-1$16.8M·
Spain/Austria72.7%+1.2$546k·
Australia/Egypt27.8%+0.5$143k·
Colombia/Ghana64.2%0$244k·
Mexico/Ecuador99.8%0$27.8M·
Mexico/Ecuador97.9%0$0·
France/Sweden76.1%0$352k·
South Africa/Canada16.4%0$1.4M·
Brazil/Japan57.8%0$1.3M·
Netherlands/Morocco45.3%0$417k·
Germany/Paraguay70.5%0$168k·
Côte d'Ivoire/Norway24.5%0$327k·
Jordan/Argentina0.6%-0.4$51.7M·
Algeria/Austria0.6%-0.4$80.9M·
DR Congo/Uzbekistan99.8%0$14.3M·
Colombia/Portugal0.1%0$28.5M·
Croatia/Ghana99.8%0$25.1M·
Panama/England0.1%0$11.7M·
Congo DR/Uzbekistan58.4%-0.6$1.3M·
Egypt/IR Iran0.1%0$17.6M·
New Zealand/Belgium0.1%0$7.2M·
Cabo Verde/Saudi Arabia0.1%0$14.4M·
Uruguay/Spain0.1%0$28.4M·
Senegal/Iraq99.8%0$5.9M·
Norway/France0.1%0$28.7M·
Türkiye/United States99.8%0$47.1M·
Paraguay/Australia0.1%0$12.4M·
Tunisia/Netherlands0.1%0$10.1M·
Japan/Sweden0.6%-0.4$106.2M·
Ecuador/Germany99.8%0$39.9M·
Curaçao/Côte d'Ivoire0.6%-0.4$25.8M·
South Africa/Korea Republic99.8%0$24.5M·
Czechia/Mexico0.1%0$17.2M·
Scotland/Brazil0.1%0$11.8M·
Morocco/Haiti99.8%0$27.3M·
Bosnia-Herzegovina/Qatar99.8%0$10.3M·
Switzerland/Canada99.8%0$15.3M·
Colombia/DR Congo99.8%0$15.7M·
Panama/Croatia0.1%0$17.6M·
England/Ghana0.1%0$24.7M·
Portugal/Uzbekistan99.8%0$17.7M·
Jordan/Algeria0.1%0$22.4M·
Norway/Senegal99.8%0$37.6M·
France/Iraq99.8%0$16.2M·
Argentina/Austria99.8%0$31.8M·
New Zealand/Egypt0.1%0$25.5M·
Uruguay/Cabo Verde0.1%0$23.2M·
Belgium/IR Iran0.1%0$27.0M·
Spain/Saudi Arabia99.8%0$14.4M·
Tunisia/Japan0.1%0$22.0M·
Ecuador/Curaçao0.1%0$18.1M·
Germany/Côte d'Ivoire99.8%0$42.0M·
Germany/Ivory Coast67.3%-0.7$32.1M·
Ecuador/Curacao84.3%-1.7$7.6M·
Colombia/Congo DR64.1%-1.9$139k·
Bosnia and Herzegovina/Qatar66.7%-1.3$80k·
Curacao/Ivory Coast4.9%-0.1$171k·
Turkiye/USA29.4%-0.6$2.7M·
Uruguay/Cape Verde66.3%-0.7$589k·
Cape Verde/Saudi Arabia34%-1$86k·
Netherlands/Sweden98.8%-1.2$57.6M·
Türkiye/Paraguay0.1%0$32.6M·
Brazil/Haiti98%-2$60.7M·
Scotland/Morocco0.1%0$21.5M·
United States/Australia98.8%-1.2$78.1M·
Mexico/Korea Republic98.8%-1.2$119.8M·
Canada/Qatar99.8%0$20.4M·
Switzerland/Bosnia-Herzegovina99.8%0$11.7M·
Switzerland/Bosnia and Herzegovina61.2%-1.8$5.3M·
USA/Australia60.8%-1.2$1.9M·
Turkiye/Paraguay47.5%-1.5$278k·
Czechia/South Africa0.1%0$33.3M·
Uzbekistan/Colombia0.1%0$22.9M·
Ghana/Panama99.8%0$20.1M·
England/Croatia99.8%0$26.3M·
Portugal/DR Congo0.1%0$23.6M·
Austria/Jordan99.8%0$12.1M·
Argentina/Algeria99.8%0$24.3M·
Iraq/Norway0.1%0$14.5M·
France/Senegal99.8%0$28.5M·
IR Iran/New Zealand7.6%0$31.6M·
Saudi Arabia/Uruguay0.1%0$25.8M·
Belgium/Egypt0.1%0$34.9M·
Spain/Cabo Verde0.1%0$32.4M·
Sweden/Tunisia99.8%0$21.8M·
Côte d'Ivoire/Ecuador99.8%0$16.0M·
Netherlands/Japan0.1%0$28.4M·
Germany/Curaçao99.8%0$25.5M·
Australia/Türkiye99.8%0$22.0M·
Haiti/Scotland0.1%0$24.4M·
Brazil/Morocco0.1%0$26.0M·
Qatar/Switzerland0.1%0$15.5M·
Germany/Curacao92.2%-1.8$1.8M·
Ivory Coast/Ecuador27.2%-0.8$495k·
Australia/Turkiye18.4%-0.6$2.0M·
Spain/Cape Verde89.2%-1.8$455k·
Portugal/Congo DR76.3%-0.7$181k·
United States/Paraguay99.8%0$39.1M·
Canada/Bosnia-Herzegovina0.1%0$18.7M·
Korea Republic/Czechia99.8%0$15.4M·
Mexico/South Africa99.8%0$15.0M·
Cape Verde/Saudi Arabia37.8%0$0·
Colombia/DR Congo62.9%0$0·
Probly
World Cup 2026Live OddsAccuracyPricing
World Cup 2026Live OddsAccuracy
Go Pro
Methodology · Updated daily

How accurate are
prediction markets, really?

We grade every resolved World Cup market against the actual outcome. No vibes, no cherry-picked highlights — just Brier scores, calibration curves and an honest ledger of misses.

MethodologySee the misses
Tournament accuracy
80%
8/10 markets
Resolved
10
graded outcomes
Avg Brier
0.175
lower is better
Upsets
2
8 called correctly
Tournament accuracy

Resolved match accuracy

N = 10 resolved markets

Tournament accuracy across resolved markets. Full time-bucket curves publish as more matches finish.

Wall of shame
Markets that got it spectacularly wrong
2 markets
  • Germany vs Paraguay
    Predicted HOME 71% · Actual DRAW
    0.09
    Brier
  • Canada vs Bosnia-Herzegovina
    Predicted HOME 53% · Actual DRAW
    0.22
    Brier

If You Followed The Markets

Historical simulation only. Not financial advice.

If you bet $10 on every favourite

+$41

If you bet $10 on every underdog

-$100

Markets vs random picking

+46.7%

Methodology

How we grade markets

Every resolved market is scored against its closing-line probability and the actual outcome. We use the Brier score because it rewards calibration, not just hit rate.

Brier score

Mean squared error between predicted probability and outcome (0/1). Lower is better. We report it for every market, every day.

Closing line

We freeze probabilities at the canonical market close. No retroactive editing. The line you saw is the line we score.

Weekly accuracy report

Get a short email when we publish new resolved matches and Brier score updates.

Privacy Policy

Called it
Markets that nailed the outcome
8 markets
  • Mexico vs Ecuador
    Predicted HOME 98% · Actual HOME
    0.00
    Brier
  • Côte d'Ivoire vs Norway
    Predicted AWAY 48% · Actual AWAY
    0.27
    Brier
  • Brazil vs Japan
    Predicted HOME 58% · Actual HOME
    0.18
    Brier
  • South Africa vs Canada
    Predicted AWAY 57% · Actual AWAY
    0.18
    Brier
  • France vs Sweden
    Predicted HOME 76% · Actual HOME
    0.06
    Brier
  • United States vs Paraguay
    Predicted HOME 50% · Actual HOME
    0.25
    Brier
  • Korea Republic vs Czechia
    Predicted HOME 37% · Actual HOME
    0.40
    Brier
  • Mexico vs South Africa
    Predicted HOME 69% · Actual HOME
    0.10
    Brier